Home Affordable Modification Program Most Will Default

Wall Street Journal
June 16, 2010
By JAMES R. HAGERTY

Fitch Ratings Ltd. forecasts that most borrowers who get lower mortgage payments under a federal government program will default within 12 months.

Among those with loans that aren't backed by any federal agency, the redefault rate within a year is likely to be 65% to 75% under the Obama administration's Home Affordable Modification Program, or HAMP, according to a report to be released Wednesday by Fitch, a New York-based credit-rating firm. Almost all of those who got loan modifications have already defaulted once.

Diane Pendley, a managing director at Fitch, said the failure rate was likely to be high largely because most of these borrowers were mired in credit-card debt, car loans and other obligations.

The Treasury Department has said that among people who have been given loan modifications under HAMP, the median ratio of total debt payments to pretax income is still 64%. That often means little money is left over for food, clothing or such emergency expenses as medical care and car repairs.

"The borrower remains in a very high-risk situation," Ms. Pendley said in an interview. "The other debts don't go away." Link to complete article