U.S. economic growth gauge falls to 45-week low

June 18 (Reuters) - A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell to a 45-week low in the latest week, indicating that the economy is about to slow, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 122.5 for the week ended June 11, down from 123.0 in the prior week. That was the lowest level since July 31, 2009 when it stood at 122.4. The index's annualized growth rate slowed to -5.7 percent after a -3.7 percent rate a week earlier. (Reporting by Tom Ryan; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

Commentary via Zero Hedge:

The ECRI weekly leading index is continuing its accelerating dive, and is now well into negative territory, hitting -5.7 for the past week: a 2.2 decline from the prior week. Here is why, as David Rosenberg, this is a critical indicator, and why we may have just 4.3 more points to go before the critical -10 threshold: "It is one thing to slip to or fractionally below the zero line, but a -3.5% reading has only sent off two head-fakes in the past, while accurately foreshadowing seven recessions — with a three month lag. Keep your eye on the -10 threshold, for at that level, the economy has gone into recession … only 100% of the time (42 years of data)." At this rate of decline -10 will be taken out in the first week of July.
 
And some more recent observations on ECRI from Rosie (David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff):
Suffice it to say, when the ECRI was drifting lower in 2007, it got to -3.5%, where are we are now, in November and unbeknownst to the consensus at the time that a recession was only one month away. Remember that the economics community did not call for recession until after Lehman collapsed — nine months after it started; and go back to 2001, and the consensus did not call for recession until after 9/11 and again the economy had been in recession for a good six months).