All excited about October 2010 retail sales, thank God for Seasonal Adjustments

Unlike the Census Bureau and every other U.S. Government reporting agency, we consumers do not seasonally adjust our spending. If we can't afford the winter coat, we do not buy it, regardless of weather conditions nor what we did or did not purchase last month or last year.

CNBC and other self-proclaimed financial news venues are giddy about the October 2010 retail sales report beating expectations. The following is a recap of several line items from the Census Bureau report noting the difference between seasonally adjusted figures and not adjusted (a.k.a. what was really spent): Retail Report

• $373.103 billion total seasonally adjusted retail sales
• $363.390 billion total not adjusted retail sales ($9.7 billion that never hit the retailers' cash registers)
• $67.005 billion total seasonally adjusted motor vehicle and parts dealers
• $62.230 billion total not adjusted sales ($4.775 billion that never hit the dealers' accounts or parts stores)
• $30.872 billion total seasonally adjusted non-store retailers
• $29.551 billion total not adjusted sales ($1.321 billion never hitting the register)
• $51.083 billion total seasonally adjusted general merchandise store
• $49.860 billion total not adjusted sales ($1.223 billion that never hit the register)
• $8.647 billion total seasonally adjusted electronics and appliance stores
• $7.512 billion total not adjusted sales ($1.135 billion that never saw an i-pad)
• $24.451 billion total seasonally adjusted building material, garden equip. and supplies dealers
• $23.864 billion total not adjusted sales ($587 million that never hit Home Depot)
• $18.186 billion total seasonally adjusted clothing and clothing accessories
• $17.647 billion total not adjusted sales ($539 million that never hit Macy's and peers)

Granted, several line items were actually seasonally adjusted down from the "not adjusted figure" however on a net basis, $19+ billion never left the consumer's pocket.