"Our Children and Grandchildren are not merely statistics towards which we can be indifferent" JFK

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Boston Properties another example of the REIT Pump

Boston Properties (BXP) reported earnings on 10/26/10 and naturally Beat The Street. They managed to beat the consensus (a.k.a. collection of stock pumpers) by 4 pennies.


Boston Properties stock ($87.40 close on 11/2/10) has launched 30% year to date and 40% during the prior 12 months. During this meteoric rise in the stock price, the collection of stock pumpers quietly set consensus earnings and revenue targets below year ago figures.

Welcome to Wall Street, pump the stock while setting retracting fundamentals.

Boston Properties Q3 Earnings Report "Highlights"
  • Funds from Operations (FFO) for the quarter were $150.8 million, or $1.08 per share basic and $1.07 per share diluted. This compares to FFO for the quarter ended 9/30/2009 of $158.5 million, or $1.14 per share basic and $1.13 per share diluted
  • Net income available to common shareholders was $57.7 million for the quarter compared to $65.8 million for the quarter ended 9/30/2009. Net income available to common shareholders per share (EPS) for the quarter was $0.41 basic and $0.41 on a diluted basis. This compares to EPS for the third quarter of 2009 of $0.47 basic and $0.47 on a diluted basis.
  • The overall percentage of leased space for the 139 properties in service as of September 30, 2010 was 93.4%.
  • Revenue climbed to $388.2 million from $377.3 million. Analysts were predicting revenue of $368.6 million. Rental revenue rose to nearly $372 million from $359.4 million.
  • Expenses grew to $331.7 million from $308.4 million

Boston Properties Guidance and Grandpa's Notes
  • Q4 2010, FFO $1.09 to $1.12 (stock pumpers est. is $1.09)
  • NOTE: Q4 2009 actual FFO was $1.15
  • NOTE: the pumpers have a 2010 FY FFO target of $4.33
  • Fiscal Year 2011, FFO $4.20 to $4.40 (stock pumpers est. is $4.42)
  • NOTE: Fiscal Year 2009 FFO was $4.71
BXP stock has launched 30% year to date and 40% during the prior 12 months yet the company expects fiscal year 2011 FFO to come in 6.6% to 10.8% less than FY 2009. The stock pumpers consensus guesstimate for 2011 FFO is 6.2% less than FY 2009!

At $87.40, BXP has a PE of roughly 20.2 based on 2010 estimates and 19.78 based on 2011 estimates.

Wall Street stock pumpers love American equity buyers.
I unloaded my largest client's shares of BXP and now I'm
Short...like taking candy from a baby...

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