"Our Children and Grandchildren are not merely statistics towards which we can be indifferent" JFK

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Existing home sales (seasonally adjusted) 4.68 million with 1/3 distressed properties

33% of total sales were distressed properties. Lawrence Yun puts on his happy face and states "continuing gains in home sales are encouraging..." Maybe it's the D.C. air Mr. Yun, but 1 out of every 3 sales stemming from distressed properties and foreclosures accounting for 2/3 of the distressed sales does not strike me as encouraging.

WASHINGTON , December 22, 2010

Existing-home sales got back on an upward path in November, resuming a growth trend since bottoming in July, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 5.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.68 million in November from 4.43 million in October, but are 27.9 percent below the cyclical peak of 6.49 million in November 2009, which was the initial deadline for the first-time buyer tax credit. NAR Chart

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, is hopeful for 2011. “Continuing gains in home sales are encouraging, and the positive impact of steady job creation will more than trump some negative impact from a modest rise in mortgage interest rates, which remain historically favorable,” he said.

Yun added that home buyers are responding to improved affordability conditions. “The relationship recently between mortgage interest rates, home prices and family income has been the most favorable on record for buying a home since we started measuring in 1970,” he said. “Therefore, the market is recovering and we should trend up to a healthy, sustainable level in 2011.”

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $170,600 in November, up 0.4 percent from November 2009. Distressed homes3 have been a fairly stable market share, accounting for 33 percent of sales in November; they were 34 percent in October and 33 percent in November 2009.

Foreclosures, which accounted for two-thirds of the distressed sales share, sold at a median discount of 15 percent in November, while short sales were discounted 10 percent in comparison with traditional home sales.

Total housing inventory at the end of November fell 4.0 percent to 3.71 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.5-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 10.5-month supply in October.

A parallel NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 32 percent of homes in November, the same as in October, but are below a 51 percent share in November 2009 from the surge to beat the initial deadline for the first-time buyer tax credit.

Investors accounted for 19 percent of transactions in November, also unchanged from October, but are up from 12 percent in November 2009; the balance of sales were to repeat buyers. All-cash sales were at 31 percent in November, up from 29 percent in October and 19 percent a year ago. “The elevated level of all-cash transactions continues to reflect tight credit market conditions,” Yun said.

Single-family home sales rose 6.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 million in November from 3.89 million in October, but are 27.3 percent below a surge to a 5.71 million cyclical peak in November 2009. The median existing single-family home price was $171,300 in November, which is 1.2 percent above a year ago. NAR Complete Report

Couple of grandpa facts from the NAR report
(the non-seasonally ajusted figures)
  • 353,000 Nov. existing home sales (4.236 mil annualized), 444,000 less than their seasonally adjusted headline number
  • Since Nov. 2009, there has only been 2 months with lesser non-seasonally adjusted home sales than Nov. 2010
  • The non-seasonally adjusted figure for Nov. 2010 is actually 1.7% below the non-seasonally adjusted figure for Oct. 2010 versus the +5.6% headline number
  • Single family Nov. 2010 non-seasonally adjusted came it at 316,000 or 3.792 million annualized versus the 4.150 million seasonally adjusted figure (differential of 358,000 units) NAR Single Family Only Sales
  • Single family non-seasonally adjusted figure for Nov. 2010 was dead flat with Oct. 2010 versus the +6.7% seasonally adjusted headline number

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