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Monday, January 24, 2011

Whack a Mole Helps UBS Analyst Pick Price Target on Harley Davidson

UBS Analysts Robin Farley Maintains a Neutral Rating
on the HOG during a 228 Day Period Even Though She
Raised and Lowered the Stock Price Target from $28.80 to $37.
Keep Whacking Robin, It Just Takes Practice.

Earnings Preview: Harley-Davidson
by The Fly On The Wall
Harley-Davidson (HOG) is expected to report Q4 earnings before the market open on Tuesday, January 25, 2011 with a conference call scheduled for 9 am ET. Analysts are looking for a loss of (30c) on revenue of $863.03M. The consensus range is (39c) to (17c) for EPS, and revenue of $807.95M to $895M, according to First Call.

In October, Harley-Davidson narrowed its 2010 shipments view to 207,000-212,000 and cut its CapEx view to $190M-$210M due to lower costs for restructuring. The company said it was gaining market share with riders ages 18-24 and said the economy had yet to turn around in a "convincing way".

In November, UBS said Harley's November retail sales were in-line with the industry, down 18% year-over-year. In December, Harley reached an agreement with its exclusive dealer in Brazil, HDSP/Grupo Izzo, that will enable the company to expand its presence and its network of dealerships in Brazil in the future.

Rumors have been swirling for well over a year that Harley will be taken over, perhaps by a private equity company, but Barron's said the good news about Harley-Davidson is already in the stock. Wells Fargo sees several positive catalysts for the company in 2011.

HOG Closed 1/21/11 $35.99

Jan 24, 2011 (Reuters) - Harley-Davidson Inc: * UBS raises Harley Davidson Inc-price target to $37 from $31; rating neutral. Vigilant Grandpa (VG): 46 days earlier, Robin lowered earnings estimates and maintained $31 price target. Now, the DAY BEFORE earnings announcment, Robin raises stock price by 19%! Hey Robin, were you able to get your largest clients out of the stock this morning or was your trading desk simply holding too much inventory?

46 Days Earlier
HOG Closed $33.51

Equities research analysts at UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) lowered their earnings per share estimates on shares of Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG) in a research note to clients and investors on Wednesday. The analysts currently have a “neutral” rating and a $31.00 price target on the stock. VG: 50 days earlier, UBS raises price target and earnings estimate. What happended Robin?

50 Days Earlier
October 20, 2010
HOG Closed $30.95 

UBS maintains a Neutral on Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG), raises Price Target to $31.

UBS analyst says, "Q3 continuing operations EPS $0.40 vs. Street $0.35 (including some restructuring). Excluding ~$0.19 restruc. charges adj. EPS of $0.58 vs. UBS $0.43 and reflects true beat. Shipments in line with UBS estimate and guidance, tho rev/unit higher because of mix of product within bike family...Believe Implied Guidance for Q4’10 Gross Margin Conservative...Used Market Firming, But Pricing Still Inconsistent."

91 Days Earlier
July 21, 2010 
HOG Closed $26.68

UBS maintains a 'Neutral' on Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG), raises price target from $28.80 to $29.50. UBS analyst increases FY10 EPS estimates from $1.22 to $1.65 and FY11 from $1.61 to $1.93. VG: 41 days pass and it's time to raise price target and earnings estimate. WOW, in 41 days, the worst is deemed over.

41 Days Earlier
HOG Closed $27.32

Harley-Davidson: UBS Securities equity analyst Robin Farley maintained a neutral rating on shares of Harley-Davidson (HOG), the largest U.S. motorcycle maker, on June 10. She lowered a price target on the shares to $28.80 from $32.

In a note, Farley said that she believes Harley-Davidson's U.S. retail sales at dealers declined around 15 percent year-over-year in May vs. an industry decline of around 11 percent. While the company's quarter-to-date sales decline of 7 percent is an improvement over the first quarter's year-over-year decline of 24 percent, "it also signifies that the worst may not be over" for Harley's dealer-level sales, Farley said.

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