Goodbye Middle Class (Michael Pento)

But please keep in mind; this is what is

is known as a recovery in the

eyes of our government.

Thursday, April 14, 2011
Euro Pacific Capital
By: MIchael Pento

Surprise! Bernanke now has to make a difficult choice. Despite the Fed’s best laid plans, inflation is soaring but the housing and job markets are dead in the water. I have been warning from the start of Quantitative Counterfeiting that the economy, housing market and the unemployment would not significantly improve—however, inflation would become a significant problem.

Today we received data on Initial Claims and inflation. Producer Prices increased by .7% from February to March and jumped 5.8% YOY. Meanwhile, the number of individuals filing first time jobless claims jumped by 27k to 412k for the week ended April 9th. Significantly rising prices and an anemic job market are the products of the Fed’s desire to crumble the currency. One of the so called unintended consequences of bailing out the banks is the destruction of America’s middle class.

For example, the average price of regular gasoline at the pump rose 11 cents to $3.77 a gallon in the week ended April 10, according to AAA. It climbed to $3.81 yesterday, the highest since September 2008. Yep, the highest gas prices since the market and economy crumbled in the summer of 2008. Real incomes are falling along with consumers’ discretionary purchasing power. But please keep in mind; this is what is known as a recovery in the eyes of our government.

Michael Pento, Senior Economist at Euro Pacific Capital is a well-established specialist in the “Austrian School” of economics. He is a regular guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, and other national media outlets and his market analysis can be read in most major financial publications, including the Wall Street Journal. Prior to joining Euro Pacific, Michael worked for a boutique investment advisory firm to create ETFs and UITs that were sold throughout Wall Street. Earlier in his career, he worked on the floor of the NYSE.

Bernanke insists on perpetuating this phony recovery (Michael Pento)

Bernanke and Co. prefer to play politics

instead of doing what’s correct.

Thursday, April 7, 2011
 Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.
By: Michael Pento

First time jobless claims dropped by 10k for the week ending April 2nd. But this again was only accomplished by having to revise up by 4k the data from the week prior. So really it was just a drop of 6k to the level of 382k. While the MSM is pointing to this figure as more evidence of “the recovery”, Jean Claude Trichet was reminding Americans that the whole recovery thing is phony and living on borrowed time.

The head of the ECB isn’t conflicted by a dual mandate of stable prices and full employment. His only mandate is to preserve the purchasing power of the Euro. Since European inflation is up 2.6%, which is higher than their 2% maximum rate, Mr. Trichet raised interest rates by a quarter point to 1.25%. “It is essential that recent price developments do not give rise to broad-based inflationary pressures over the medium term,” Trichet said. Compare that to our conflicted and compromised Chairman who assured us that inflation is “transitory”—with the same conviction he proclaimed that the sub-prime mortgage crisis was contained. Yes, Americans are now being schooled by the French on how to run a sound monetary policy.

Gold, oil, the CRB Index, foreign currencies and Treasury yields are all screaming at Bernanke that it’s time to join Mr. Trichet in a fight against inflation. But the sad truth is that the double-dipping real estate market and the onerous U.S. debt levels prohibit interest rate hikes without dire consequences in the short term. So Bernanke and Co. prefer to play politics instead of doing what’s correct. However, what they are missing is that the bond market doesn’t play any games at all. The yield on the 10 year note is up nearly 40 bps since March 16th and has surged nearly 120 bps since October.

So the only real question is whether the Fed will get ahead of inflation and take rates higher now or will it merely watch the market adjust interest rates to reflect rapidly rising inflation. In either case, rising rates will expose the phony recovery for what it was the entire time—one that was based on artificially produced low rates, inflation and debt. The only difference being the longer Bernanke insists on perpetuating this phony recovery, the higher interest rates will eventually have to go and the more damage the economy will have to suffer.

Michael Pento, Senior Economist at Euro Pacific Capital is a well-established specialist in the “Austrian School” of economics. He is a regular guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, and other national media outlets and his market analysis can be read in most major financial publications, including the Wall Street Journal. Prior to joining Euro Pacific, Michael worked for a boutique investment advisory firm to create ETFs and UITs that were sold throughout Wall Street. Earlier in his career, he worked on the floor of the NYSE.

Jobless Claims: Dept of Labor Adjusts out 1.1 mil jobless claims

Welcome to Secretary Solis' World of Calculations

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT
Department of Laughter Lies Labor
1/27/2011

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Jan. 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 454,000, an increase of 51,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 403,000. The 4-week moving average was 428,750, an increase of 15,750 from the previous week's revised average of 413,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.2 percent for the week ending Jan. 15, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.1 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Jan. 15 was 3,991,000, an increase of 94,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,897,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,975,500, a decrease of 39,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,015,250.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 482,399 in the week ending Jan. 22, a decrease of 67,491 from the previous week. There were 502,710 initial claims in the comparable week in 2010.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.7 percent during the week ending Jan. 15, unchanged from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 4,593,535, a decrease of 58,900 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 4.3 percent and the volume was 5,602,357.

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending Jan. 8 was 9,410,977. Complete Dept of Deception Report

Collectively, DOL Seasonally Adjusted out

1,094,242 initial jobless claims since 12/4/10

Week Ending           SA            NSA           Diff
1/22/11               454,000       482,399       28,000
1/15/11               404,000       549.890     145,890
1/8/11                 445,000       770,413     325,413
1/1/11                 409,000       578,727     168,727
12/25/10              391,000       525,710    134,710
12/18/10              420,000       495,548      75,548
12/11/10              423,000         90,276      67,276
12/4/10                438,000       585,678    147,678

Initial Jobless Claims: Dept. of Labor eliminates 1 mil filers since 12/4/10

Labor Secretary Hilda Solis once again waived her magic wand and seasonally adjusted out 146,594 first time filers of unemployment claims. Since the week ending 12/4/10, Hilda's seasonally adjusted wand (SAW) eliminated over 1 million Americans filing claims from the headline number.

January 20, 2011
Department of Labor
Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Jan. 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 404,000, a decrease of 37,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 441,000. The 4-week moving average was 411,750, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised average of 415,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.1 percent for the week ending Jan. 8, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.1 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Jan. 8 was 3,861,000, a decrease of 26,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,887,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,006,250, a decrease of 52,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,058,500.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 550,594 in the week ending Jan. 15, a decrease of 212,504 from the previous week. There were 652,327 initial claims in the comparable week in 2010.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.7 percent during the week ending Jan. 8, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 4,609,826, a decrease of 167,288 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 4.5 percent and the volume was 5,791,080.

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending Jan. 1 was 9,607,423. Complete DOL Report

States with an increase of more than 1,000

(data that will not be discussed on CNBC)

• OH   +2,523   Layoffs in the automobile industry
• IN     +5,311    Layoffs in the automobile and trade industries
• MO  +6,259    Layoffs in the transportation, warehousing, service, and manufacturing industries
• IL   +11,211    Layoffs in the construction, trade, and service industries
• WA   4,108     Layoffs in the finance, insurance, trade, and service industries.

Jobless Claims: Dept. of Labor Seasonally Adjusts out the entire population of ND plus 1/2 of WY

January 14, 2011

The Department of Laughter Labor has done their part to keep the stock market rally alive. Since 12/4/10, Hilda Solis and her crack staff successfully seasonally adjusted out 919,000 Americans filing initial jobless claims. Madam Secretary knows all too well that the U.S. stock market pundits only pay attention to seasonally adjusted data.

During the six weekly reporting periods from 12/4/10 through 1/8/11, the Dept. of Labor seasonally adjusted out the equivalent of the entire population of North Dakota plus 1/2 of the population of Wyoming. During this same period Hilda would have you believe the U.S. actually added 103,000 jobs during December.

Ms. Solis's December non-farm payroll report states the U.S. workforce is 153.7 million and no one believe 919,000 Americans simply seasonally adjusted out of the headline number has no impact on our "real life" economy? Nearly 1 million more filing unemployment claims will have no effect on mortgage payment delinquencies, retail sales or food stamp demand?

Our middle class is not only evaporating,

the Department of Labor disavows our existence.

Welcome to the Seasonally Adjusted Employment Recovery.

Week Ending           SA           NSA           Diff
1/8/11                 445,000     770,413   325,413
1/1/11                 409,000     578,727   168,727
12/25/10              391,000    525,710   134,710
12/18/10              420,000     495,548     75,548
12/11/10              423,000     490,276     67,276
12/4/10                438,000     585,678   147,678

Total                  2,081,000    2,674,022  919,352 (153,225 ave. per week)

Initial Jobless Claims: Can the Dept. of Labor Seasonally Adjust out the entire population of ND

The Department of Laughter Labor has done a superb job keeping the U.S. stock market dream rally alive. Knowing that CNBC, equity analysts and mutual fund managers only care about headline, seasonally adjusted numbers, the Department of Labor successfully seasonally adjusted out 593,000 Americans filing initial jobless claims in the month of December. Hilda Solis works magic with her Seasonally Adjusted Wand (SAW).

With the first full week of 2011 initial jobless claims to be released 1/13/11, can Hilda Solis and her Department of Laughter Labor jesters extend the dream for one more week and seasonally adjust out the equivalent of the entire population of North Dakota? Hilda only needs 1/2 of her December weekly average to wipe out ND. Tune in your favorite financial news at 7:30 am CDT for results.

Week Ending           SA           NSA          Diff
1/1/11                   409,000      577,279   168,279
12/25/10               391,000      525,241   134,241
12/18/10               420,000      495,548     75,548
12/11/10               423,000      490,276     67,276
12/4/10                 438,000      585,678   147,678


Total                  2,081,000   2,674,022    593,022 (118,604 ave.)

President Obama...Tear Down These Factories! (Michael Pento)

Thursday, January 6, 2011
By: Michael Pento

Guess what? Shocker of all shockers, the Labor Department underestimated the number of initial jobless claims last week! They originally said that 388k individuals filed for first time jobless benefits. In the week ending January 1st, the Labor Department had to revise higher its count by 3k. But still, the number of initial claims jumped by 18k--which was in reality was a jump of 21k from what they originally reported—and placed the total number of claims at 409k. Interestingly enough, the number of unadjusted claims actually increased by 52k!

The fact is that the labor department underestimates the number of claims as a matter of practice. If they can’t accurately count the number of people that actually file benefit claims how can they possibly accurately factor the seasonal adjustments to the number?

California showed the biggest jump in applications, a 15,972 increase, and cited increased firings at transportation, construction and manufacturing firms. The type of jobs being added are those in the retail space like Dollar General Corp., the biggest of the U.S. dollar discount stores, The Company plans to add 6,000 jobs and is opening 625 stores this year. Yippee!

However, the companies that are cutting staff are those in the goods producing sector of the economy like AK Steel Holding Corp, the third-largest U.S. steelmaker. The company said it is closing a Kentucky coke plant to reduce costs. The shutdown of the Ashland facility, which has 263 employees, will be completed early in the second quarter.

Strip malls that contain at least one bank have become America’s economic paradigm. At least that gives us a reason to tear down those decrepit and abandoned factories. Vigilant Grandpa's take on DOL Seasonal Adjustments

Michael Pento, Senior Economist at Euro Pacific Capital is a well-established specialist in the “Austrian School” of economics. He is a regular guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, and other national media outlets and his market analysis can be read in most major financial publications, including the Wall Street Journal. Prior to joining Euro Pacific, Michael worked for a boutique investment advisory firm to create ETFs and UITs that were sold throughout Wall Street. Earlier in his career, he worked on the floor of the NYSE.

Dept. of Labor Seasonally Adjusts Out 593,022 Initial Jobless Claims in December

Not Seasonally Adjusted Jobless Claims

The Department of Laughter, Lies, Labor successfully seasonally adjusted out 593,000 Americans filing initial jobless claims in December. Meanwhile ADP states 297,000 seasonally adjusted jobs jobs were created in December. 2.7 million non-seasonally adjusted Americans filed initial jobless claims in December and yet ADP would have us believe on net, 300,000 jobs were created? Hilda Solis is doing her best to keep the equity market rally alive as even the Secretary of Labor knows the market disregards non-adjusted data.

Keep up the fine work Ms. Solis,

as your creative arithmetic skills 

are an inspiration to 2nd and 3rd graders globally.

Seasonally Adjusted Claims

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Jan. 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 409,000, an increase of 18,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 391,000. The 4-week moving average was 410,750, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average of 414,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.3 percent for the week ending Dec. 25, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.3 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Dec. 25 was 4,103,000, a decrease of 47,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,150,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,122,500, a decrease of 2,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,125,250.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 577,279 in the week ending Jan. 1, an increase of 52,038 from the previous week. There were 645,446 initial claims in the comparable week in 2010.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.5 percent during the week ending Dec. 25, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 4,390,661, an increase of 273,882 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 4.2 percent and the volume was 5,484,997.

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending Dec. 18 was 8,765,952. DOL Press Release and of course prior week revisions

Week Ending           SA           NSA                Diff
1/1/11                   409,000   577,279         168,279
12/25/10               391,000   525,241         134,241 
12/18/10               420,000   495,548           75,548
12/11/10               423,000   490,276           67,276
12/4/10                 438,000   585,678         147,678


Total                 2,081,000     2,674,022     593,022

In an effort to attend Bernanke's NYE party, Dept. of Labor adjusts out 424,000 jobless claims

Grandpa Fun Facts to Know and Share

In an effort to reward Wall Street manipulators this holiday season and remain in contention for the Bernanke NYE party, the DOL seasonally adjusted out 423,723 Americans filing initial jobless claims month to date. In early December, Secretary of Labor, Hilda Solis experienced a significant panic attack given the uptick in "real" initial jobless claims.

Hilda realized this increase in "real" jobless claims would not bode well for Wall Street, the stock market nor Ben Bernanke's mandate of inflating all asset classes. Accepting the fact that she could not massage the actual number of people filing claims and knowing Wall Street ignores core fundamental data, Ms. Solis implemented a bonus program for any staff member that could tweak the seasonal adjustment formula and wipe out at least 1/4 of a million jobless claims in the month.

Madam Secretary was ecstatic with the results of her incentive program, as her crack staff blew past the 1/4 million mark and managed to seasonally eliminate 423,723 Americans filing initial jobless claims through Christmas.

Week Ending        SA        NSA        Diff

12/25/10         388,000   521,834   133,834 (423,723 M-T-D)


12/18/10         422,000    496,935    74,935


12/11/10         423,000    490,276    67,276


12/4/10           438,000    585,678  147,678

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (SA) DATA
DOL Press Release

In the week ending Dec. 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 388,000, a decrease of 34,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 422,000. The 4-week moving average was 414,000, a decrease of 12,500 from the previous week's revised average of 426,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.3 percent for the week ending Dec. 18, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.2 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Dec.18 was 4,128,000, an increase of 57,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,071,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,120,000, a decrease of 37,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,157,250.

UNADJUSTED (NSA) DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 521,834 in the week ending Dec. 25, an increase of 24,879 from the previous week. There were 556,517 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.3 percent during the week ending Dec. 18, unchanged from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 4,095,135, a decrease of 85,886 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 3.9 percent and the volume was 5,088,864.

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending Dec. 4 was 8,866,924.

Dept. of Labor Seasonally Adjusts Out 305,541 Initial Jobless Claims in December

Department of Laughter Labor Report
12/23/10
Full DOL Release

Seasonally Adjusted Data

In the week ending Dec. 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 420,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 423,000. The 4-week moving average was 426,000, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average of 423,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.2 percent for the week ending Dec. 11, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.3 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Dec.11 was 4,064,000, a decrease of 103,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,167,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,155,500, a decrease of 38,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,193,750.

Unadjusted data

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 495,587 in the week ending Dec. 18, an increase of 5,311 from the previous week. There were 565,243 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.3 percent during the week ending Dec. 11, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 4,173,407, an increase of 110,889 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 4.1 percent and the volume was 5,345,467.

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending Dec. 4 was 8,883,578.

A few observations by Grandpa

The Department of Labor's seasonal adjustments have not remotely accounted for the actual # of people filing initial jobless claims in December. Granted, the U.S. stock market does not care about any "real" figure given the fact that Bernanke has afforded the market manipulators ample capital to push stocks to the moon.

Today, the Department of Laughter Labor reported seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims of 420,000 although the non-seasonally adjusted claims (a.k.a. real people standing in line) was 495,587. For the prior week report (12/11/10), the Department of Laughter Labor reported seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims of 423,000 however the non-seasonally adjusted figure was 490,276. For the prior week ending 12/4/10, the Department of Laughter Labor reported seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims of 423,000 however the non-seasonally adjusted figure was 585,678.   During this three week period, DOL seasonally adjusted out 305,541 Americans.

According to the Department of Labor, 1,266,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims were filed during the first 3 weeks in December however 1,571,541 Americans actually filed claims.

CNBC and every other stock market bull continues to focus on the seasonally adjusted, "once upon a time" figure. Does CNBC and the bulls truly believe 305,541 Americans left out of the headline number has no fundamental impact to our economy?

The DOL seasonally adjusted out the equivalent population of San Bernardino, CA and more than the entire population of Mobile, AL, Grand Rapids, MI or Fort Lauderdale, FL. Salt Lake City, UT would need to add 15,000 to their entire population just to equal the number of people DOL adjusted out of the initial claims report during the prior two weeks.

DOL seasonally adjusted out more than the entire population of Lexington, KY and 31,000 more than the entire population of Plano, TX.



Shame all around (Michael Pento) and a few Grandpa comments

Thursday, December 16, 2010
Other Michael Pento Posts
By: Michael Pento

Shame on the Department of Labor for once again having to revise the previous week’s initial jobless claims number higher. In the week ending December 11th, Initial claims came in at 420k, after being revised up by 2k in the prior week.

The number of people continuing to collect jobless benefits rose by 22,000 in the week ended Dec. 4 to 4.14 million. The continuing claims figure does not include the number of workers receiving extended benefits under federal programs. Those who’ve used up their traditional benefits and are now collecting emergency and extended payments increased by 324,537 to 4.83 million in the week ended Nov. 27.

On another front, the U.S. continues to hemorrhaging red ink on every front. The U.S. current account deficit widened to $127.2 billion in the third quarter from $123.2 billion in the second quarter, the Commerce Department reported today. As a percentage of GDP, the deficit increased to 3.5% in the third quarter, which was the largest share since the fourth quarter of 2008, from 3.4% in the second quarter. The overall deficit widened as the deficit on goods hit $171.2 billion in the third quarter, compared with $169.6 billion in the second quarter. The current account deficit consists of the trade deficit (exports minus imports of goods and services), net factor income (such as interest and dividends) and net transfer payments (such as foreign aid) and is the broadest measure of capital moving outside of the United States.

So the ersatz recovery is well on track but it is completely based on massively upping the ante on borrowing and printing. Just a minor detail investors would do well not to ignore. Shame...

Michael Pento, Senior Economist at Euro Pacific Capital is a well-established specialist in the “Austrian School” of economics. He is a regular guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, and other national media outlets and his market analysis can be read in most major financial publications, including the Wall Street Journal. Prior to joining Euro Pacific, Michael worked for a boutique investment advisory firm to create ETFs and UITs that were sold throughout Wall Street. Earlier in his career, he worked on the floor of the NYSE.

Additional observation by Grandpa:

The Department of Labor's seasonal adjustments have not remotely accounted for the actual # of people filing initial jobless claims. Granted, the U.S. stock market does not care about any "real" figure given the fact that Bernanke has afforded the market manipulators ample capital to push stocks to the moon.

Today, the Department of Laughter Labor reported seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims of 420,000 although the non-seasonally adjusted claims (a.k.a. real people standing in line) was 486,284. For the prior week report (12/4/10), the Department of Laughter Labor reported seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims of 423,000 however the non-seasonally adjusted figure was 555,382. During this two week period, DOL seasonally adjusted out 198,667 Americans.

The DOL seasonally adjusted out the equivalent population of San Bernardino, CA and more than the entire population of Mobile, AL, Grand Rapids, MI or Fort Lauderdale, FL. Salt Lake City, UT would need to add 15,000 to their entire population just to equal the number of people DOL adjusted out of the initial claims report during the prior two weeks.

More Games at the Department of Labor (Michael Pento)

Thursday, December 9, 2010
Michael Pento
By: Michael Pento

I’m now actively seeking a cogent answer as to why the Department of Labor always overestimates initial jobless claims. This week they did it by 2k. Applications for jobless benefits decreased by "17k" to 421,000 from a revised 438,000 in the prior week. Of course the headline of a drop of x thousand always sounds better after they’ve raised the prior number up.

However, it may be prudent to point out that on an unadjusted basis the advance number of actual initial claims under state programs totaled 582,007 in the week ending Dec. 4, which was an increase of 169,085 from the previous week.

Now I’m not trying to poo poo the overall numbers here. The four week moving average has come down to 427,500, which was a drop of 4k from the previous week. And the overall direction of initial claims has come down. But the important point to make is that a cessation of layoffs doesn’t necessarily equate to an increase in hiring. Evidence the NFP report last Friday. Corporations have reduced the fat and are running very lean operations. The question that needs to be asked is what is next in line for the economy.

Rising inflation and a mountain of debt issuance has finally started to take a toll on the bond market. The soaring rate of doing business over the past few days will put a damper on business activity across the board. That’s not a recipe for an improved in the employment situation.

Michael Pento, Senior Economist at Euro Pacific Capital is a well-established specialist in the “Austrian School” of economics. He is a regular guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, and other national media outlets and his market analysis can be read in most major financial publications, including the Wall Street Journal. Prior to joining Euro Pacific, Michael worked for a boutique investment advisory firm to create ETFs and UITs that were sold throughout Wall Street. Earlier in his career, he worked on the floor of the NYSE.

Non-Seasonally Adjusted Initial Jobless Claims UP 169,085 to 582,007

The U.S. Market is once again set to celebrate the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims figure of 421,000 as it represents a seasonally adjusted reduction of 17,000 from the prior week. For the arithmetic challenged (like the fine folks at the Department of Laughter Labor), 161,007 American's actually filing for unemployment benefits were once again seasonally adjusted out of the headline number.

Not likely CNBC will delve too deeply into the non-seasonally adjusted figure as it is simply ugly. The stock market remains in a state of denial simply seasonally adjusting out 161,000 people does not make the country a better place.

Department of Laughter Labor Report

In the week ending Dec. 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 421,000, a decrease of 17,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 438,000. The 4-week moving average was 427,500, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised average of 431,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.2 percent for the week ending Nov. 27, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.4 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Nov. 27 was 4,086,000, a decrease of 191,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,277,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,226,000, a decrease of 64,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,290,250.

Non-seasonally adjusted (a..k.a. Real World)

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 582,007 in the week ending Dec. 4, an increase of 169,085 from the previous week. There were 665,685 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.3 percent during the week ending Nov. 27, an increase of 0.4 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 4,188,560, an increase of 522,787 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 4.1 percent and the volume was 5,400,752.

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending Nov. 13 was 8,297,938. Complete report

DOL (Department of Laughter) Seasonally Eliminates 55,000 jobless claims

S and P 500 Futures Launch 9+ points

as Wall Street Ignores Real Data,

opts to focus on smoke and mirrors 

seasonally adjusted figures

Department of Labor
11/24/10

Seasonally Adjusted

In the week ending Nov. 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 407,000, a decrease of 34,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 441,000. The 4-week moving average was 436,000, a decrease of 7,500 from the previous week's revised average of 443,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.3 percent for the week ending Nov. 13, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.4 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Nov. 13 was 4,182,000, a decrease of 142,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,324,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,309,000, a decrease of 51,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,360,500.

Non-Seasonally Adjusted

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 462,027 in the week ending Nov. 20, an increase of 52,490 from the previous week. There were 542,492 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.1 percent during the week ending Nov. 13, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 3,839,033, an increase of 103,105 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 3.9 percent and the volume was 5,081,961.

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending Nov. 6 was 8,532,502. DOL Smoke and Mirrors Report

 

DOL (Dept. of Laughter) NOT SO GREAT JOBS REPORT per David Rosenberg

David Rosenberg's take on the DOL

(Department of Labor Laughter) Payroll Report

NICE TREAT IN U.S. PAYROLLS, BUT THERE WAS A

TRICK IN THE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY

David Rosenberg
via Zero Hedge
11/5/10

Well, that was quite the shocker. Nonfarm payrolls managed to dramatically exceed expectations and rung up a total of 151,000 jobs in October — more than double consensus estimates. And, the prior two months were revised higher by a total of 110,000.

The workweek edged back up to 34.3 hours from 34.2 hours in September and along with the moderate increase in wages, average weekly earnings, a proxy for work-based personal income, jumped 0.5% MoM. This more than recouped the 0.2% decline the month before and was a welcome relief for a household sector that will be confronting sharply rising gas prices and grocery bills ahead.

The headline was undoubtedly strong, as were some of the details, but we want to warn readers that this was not a universally solid report. First, within the nonfarm report itself, virtually all the gains were in three sectors — health/education, retail trade and waste/administrative services. Goods-producing employment barely rose.

The diffusion index for private payrolls dipped in October, to 55.0 from 55.6, which is a four-month low, and for manufacturing, the diffusion index fell to 42.1 from 54.3, which is the lowest since December 2009. So while there was depth to the report, in terms of magnitude, there was not a whole lot of breadth to it.

Many sectors still reported job declines last month, including manufacturing, commercial and residential construction, transportation, information, financial and government. As I said, not a universally strong report, notwithstanding the solid headline results.

Moreover, the Household Survey showed a 330,000 decline in October, and again, full-time jobs declined, as they have for each of the past five months for a cumulative plunge of 1.1 million.

The employment-to-population rate — the share of the population that is working — fell to 58.3% from 58.5%, a 10-month low. Many labour market experts actually consider this to be the most accurate barometer of the health in the labour market (though they are clearly not day traders, judging from the immediate reaction in the bond and stock pits).

And many of the other measures of the unemployment rate edged up, with the broad U6 index staying stubbornly high at 17%. It will be very difficult to build any sustained wage pressure with this degree of slack overhanging the labour market. While the number of people working part-time for economic reasons slid 318,000, this has to be viewed in the context of the near-one million bulge in the prior two months.

Meanwhile, those folks who have been unemployed and looking for work fruitlessly for at least six months jumped 1.54%, or 83k, last month — the first increase since last May — and the median and mean duration of unemployment both rose as well (to 21.2 weeks from 20.4; and to 33.9 weeks from 33.3, respectively).

Bottom line:

Nice headline on U.S. employment, and the income figure too. But the Household survey did not offer ratification and the problem of excess labour supply has clearly not gone away. We finished off October with a level of jobless claims (455k) that is consistent with stagnant job growth, so do not be surprised to see some giveback in payrolls when the November data roll around next month.

Labor Force Participation Rate Drops To 25 Year Low, At 64.5% (Zero Hedge)

Zero Hedge
11/5/10

The inverse silver lining to today's jobs report that will be lost in the shuffle of what is perceived as a good NFP (despite consistent initial jobless claims of around 450K, which means that either there is a massive data error, or the rate of job creation has somehow surged) is that labor force participation has now dropped to the lowest rate it has been since 1984, at 64.5%.

Assuming a reversion to the long-term average participation rate of 66%, means that the civilian labor force is in reality 157.4 million as opposed to the disclosed 153.9 million, a delta of 3.5 million currently unaccounted for.

Maybe someone can ask the president during his imminent press conference what happens to the unemployed population, which would have been 18.3 if this labor force delta was incorporated, resulting in an unemployment rate of 11.6%.

You Can't Print Jobs (Michael Pento)

Thursday, November 4, 2010
By: Michael Pento

Jobless claims rose by 20,000 to 457,000 in the week ended Oct. 30 from an upwardly revised (surprise!) 437,000 in the prior week, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The odds of an upward revision to the previous week’s claim number are now becoming just as likely as it is for the sun to rise.

The four-week moving average for claims rose to 456,000 last week from 454,000 and the number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits dropped by 42,000 in the week ended Oct. 23 to 4.34 million. However, those who’ve used up their traditional benefits and are now collecting emergency and extended payments increased by about 357,700 to 5.01 million in the week ended Oct. 16.

It’s a shame that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has yet to realize that he can’t print jobs as easily as he can counterfeit money. “Currently, the unemployment rate is elevated, and measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low,” the FOMC said. Progress in reaching its dual mandate of stable prices and low unemployment “has been disappointingly slow.”

I’m still not sure why Bernanke believes that Americans will ignore soaring prices all around them and simply assent to his claim that inflation is low. The truth is that the inflation already created by the Fed is sending more people on the unemployment line. And the more money he prints the weaker the economy will eventually become.

Michael Pento, Senior Economist at Euro Pacific Capital is a well-established specialist in the “Austrian School” of economics. He is a regular guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, and other national media outlets and his market analysis can be read in most major financial publications, including the Wall Street Journal. Prior to joining Euro Pacific, Michael worked for a boutique investment advisory firm to create ETFs and UITs that were sold throughout Wall Street. Earlier in his career, he worked on the floor of the NYSE.

Initial Jobless Claims right back to end of 2009 levels...we have gone no where

Stock Market Will Launch as We Do Not Need Jobs

We Have Ben Bernanke and QE-2

11/4/10
By Jeffry Bartash WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The number of workers who filed new applications for unemployment benefits jumped 20,000 to 457,000, reversing a sharp decline from the week before. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected initial claims to climb to a seasonally adjusted 445,000 in the week ended Oct. 30.

Claims for last week were revised up by 3,000 to 437,000, according to U.S. Labor Department data. The latest increase put weekly claims back to the same level as the end of 2009, meaning there's been no change this year.

Continuing claims, which reflect workers who've already been receiving benefits, dropped 42,000 to 4.34 million

Initial Jobless Claims Fall to 452,000 and of course last week's figure was revised UP (Zero Hedge)

The U.S. Stock Market Celebrates

452,000 citizens filing for unemployment

Zero Hedge

Jobless claims "fell" to 452k with the story as usual being in the revision. Last week's 462K number which was originally expected to be 445K is now revised to 475K! But of course it is so much more palatable to get the BLS lie piecemeal instead of in one place.

We are now on 25 out of 26 sequential upward revisions, and up to just under 250k Year to Date on initial claims. With this week's number beating expectations of 455k, only means the revised miss will be announced next week, when this week's number is revised to north of the expectation.

The same identical story in continuing claims: the print was 4,441K, a deterioration from last week's 4,399K which again was revised to 4,450K (revision 36 out of 37). Lastly, those falling of regular rolls once again jumped, and for the week ended October 2, those on Extended Benefits and EUCs rose by 280K.

Since the news confirms the US economy continues to lose workers, this will do nothing for the market's expectations of trillions in free liquidity to be announced in two weeks by the Fed. Then again, none of this matters - as Jim Iurio said earlier: "We are all currency traders."

And here is the latest upward revision chart that looks behind the headlines of the Department of Truth:

The Insanity Rolls On (Michael Pento)

Thursday, September 16, 2010
By: Michael Pento

Today was a particularly dismal day on the economic news front. Even though this recession began in December of 2007, we still find Initial jobless registering 450,000 in the week ended Sept. 11, which—if anybody is really wondering—is still a lot. According to a phone conversation I had this morning with statisticians at the Labor Department, the average weekly Initial claims number going back to September of 2000 is 392,830. So after losing 8.5 million jobs and after nearly 3 years of recession, we are still shedding more than 56,000 jobs per week above the 10 year average.

Thanks to Bernanke and his love of counterfeiting, we find that the Producer Price Index climbed 0.4% in August over July and was the biggest increase in five months. This follows the report on Import Prices released yesterday, which showed an increase of 0.6% month over month. But how can this be if the Fed Chairman assured us last month in Jackson Hole that; “At this juncture, the risk of either an undesirable rise in inflation or of significant further disinflation seems low.” Exactly what does the Fed chairman consider undesirable inflation to be? Shouldn’t the head of our central bank consider any inflation to be undesirable?

But the worst news came on the trade front. The current-account deficit in the U.S. widened to $123.3 billion in the second quarter, reflecting a surge in imports. This increase in the broadest measure of international trade (which includes income payments and government transfers) surged higher following a revised $109.2 billion shortfall for the first three months of 2010.

Can it really be any wonder why gold has outperformed equities in the past decade? From August 2000 thru August 2010 gold increased about 340%. Over the same time frame, the S and P 500, plunged about 30% in nominal terms. But if measured in terms of gold or the weakening dollar, the performance of US stocks during that time frame would be much worse.

But instead of learning a lesson from the past decade our leaders have sought to intensify the policies that have wrought such a horrific economic scenario.