"Our Children and Grandchildren are not merely statistics towards which we can be indifferent" JFK

Friday, April 30, 2010

Monster.com: you gotta love Wall Street Analysts


On Tuesday April 20, 2010, 1:05 pm EDT
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Monster Worldwide jumped 7 percent Tuesday afternoon and a Credit Suisse said an improving labor market will lead to strong growth in the next couple years for the online jobs board.

Analyst John Blackledge wrote that fears of competition from social networking sites were "overdone," and upgraded his rating on Monster. "We expect improving unemployment and increasing job openings, hires and quits to drive accelerating operating conditions," said analyst John Blackledge.

Employers added 162,000 jobs in March, the most in three years, according to government figures.

Blackledge boosted his rating on Monster to "outperform" from "neutral" and raised his estimates to profit of 3 cents per share in 2010 and 48 cents per share in 2011. He had previously forecast a loss of 25 cents per share in 2010 and profit of 10 cents per share in 2011.

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect a loss of 15 cents per share this year and a profit of 26 cents per share in 2011.

Blackledge expects revenue to grow steadily from 2009 over the next few years, but still sees revenue by 2011 27 percent below 2008 levels. Job searches have become increasingly common on social networking sites such as LinkedIn. Online classifieds giant Craigslist has also taken a share of job listings.

"While we believe social networks are being used as an alternative to online job boards, we do not expect a material impact to (Monster's) earnings," Blackledge said. He cited Monster's scale and international presence.

Moreover, he said Monster's recent acquisition of Yahoo Inc.'s HotJobs unit removes a big competitor from the market and should provide a boost to 2011 earnings per share of about 8 cents. Blackledge raised the target price on shares to $22 from $15.

Grandpa: This is a classic battle of the analysts, as Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock on April 5, 2010 to a sell from neutral and gave it a $14 price target. It is smackdown time and with an $8 price target spread, somebody is going to lose BIG. A few days (4/23/10) after John's bold upgrade, Credit Suisse was smacking Goldman as the stock closed at $18.25. One week to the big earnings announcement! AND THEN....

4/29/10: EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENT DAY FOR MONSTER WORLDWIDE
* Sees 2010 loss $0.12 to $0.20 vs Street's $0.14 loss
* Shares drop 9 percent after hours (Rewrites, adds CEO comments,
  comparisons with estimates)
NEW YORK, April 29 (Reuters) - Monster Worldwide Inc (MWW.N) on Thursday forecast second-quarter revenue short of analysts' expectations and a full-year loss that could be larger than estimated, and its shares dropped 9 percent.
 
The company, which operates the Monster.com jobs site, predicted revenue for the current quarter of $210 million to $220 million, below the $221 million Wall Street was looking for.
 
"It would be careless of us not to leave a little bit of a buffer ... when some contracts come in, the longevity of those contracts, a bunch of other issues can move a few million dollars fairly easily," Chief Executive Sal Iannuzzi said in a call with analysts.
 
Monster also forecast an operating loss of 12 cents to 20 cents a share for the full year. Analysts expected a loss of 14 cents, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
 
The company's shares fell 9 percent to $16.25 in extended trading. The shares, like those of competitors, had run up substantially since the start of March -- some 30 percent in Monster's case -- as the U.S. jobs picture seemed to improve.

Poor John, you should have kept your initial estimate of ($.25) given the company's guidance of a loss of .12 to .20 per share. With any good fortune, your clients were able to sell on April 23rd. John...John...John, you place a $22 price target on a stock that you thought would make 3 pennies?? Enjoy your weekend.

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