"Our Children and Grandchildren are not merely statistics towards which we can be indifferent" JFK

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Putting lipstick on a HOG

Harley Davidson reporting earnings yesterday and the market was once again enamored with mediocrity.

MILWAUKEE, July 20 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG - News) reported second-quarter 2010 income from continuing operations of $139.3 million, or $0.59 per share, compared to income of $33.4 million and earnings per share of $0.14 from continuing operations in the year-ago quarter. Second-quarter 2010 results include operating income from Financial Services of $60.8 million. Revenue from Motorcycles and Related Products was $1.14 billion in the second quarter.

Worldwide retail sales of new Harley-Davidson® motorcycles decreased 5.5 percent in the quarter compared to the second quarter of 2009, a sequential moderation in the rate of decline from the prior four quarters. In the U.S., retail new Harley-Davidson motorcycle sales were down 8.4 percent and in international markets, retail sales were largely flat, down 0.2 percent compared to last year's second quarter.

Through the first six months of 2010, shipments of Harley-Davidson motorcycles were 112,720 units, a 15.2 percent decrease compared to last year's 132,849 units for the period. Revenue from Harley-Davidson motorcycles through six months was $1.64 billion, a 9.8 percent decrease compared to the year-ago period. Six-month P&A revenue was $380.9 million, a 5.0 percent decrease from the first half of 2009. General Merchandise revenue was $133.6 million, a 7.7 percent decrease compared to the same period in 2009. Gross margin through six months was 35.7 percent and operating margin was 13.1 percent, compared to 35.7 percent and 16.8 percent respectively in last year's first half.

The Company reiterated its expectation to ship 201,000 to 212,000 Harley-Davidson motorcycles to dealers and distributors worldwide in 2010, a reduction of five to ten percent from 2009.

Goldman Sachs provides the lipstick...kind of...

July 21, 2010 7:41 AM EDT
Goldman Sachs raised estimates and its price target on Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG) from $22 to $26, but is keeping its Sell rating on the stock.

2010 EPS estimates go from $0.91 to $1.29, 2011 goes from $2.21 to $2.26 and 2012 goes from $2.72 to $2.81.

The firm notes that while Q2 results came ahead of expectations it will be difficult to sustain the 2Q earnings pace which benefited from a number of tailwinds that will be less positive in 2H10.

Execution on the turnaround has gone well, but with Harley remaining in the most difficult end market they are sticking with their Sell rating.

Harley Davidson closed at $26.86 up $3.22. Yes mediocrity is well rewarded on Wall Street as they should know.

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