"Our Children and Grandchildren are not merely statistics towards which we can be indifferent" JFK

Friday, November 19, 2010

Market Vulnerable to Another Flash Crash (Joseph Saluzzi)

“But can we trust a market where most
of the volume is concentrated in just a few stocks?”

By: John Melloy
Executive Producer, Fast Money

Stock market activity is still dominated by high-frequency trading and concentrated around just a few stocks and exchange-traded funds, creating an environment that will likely lead to another ‘Flash Crash’, so said a widely followed and esteemed trading expert.

“Markets that are not built on fundamental demand from long term investors are subject to cracks like we saw on May 6th,” said Joseph Saluzzi, co-head of the trading desk at Themis Trading, an agency brokerage firm. “When shocks like sovereign debt problems hit the market, the lack of real demand is exposed and a market which is not structurally sound can produce violent reactions.”

Saluzzi was featured last month in a 60 Minutes episode exploring the dangers of high frequency trading. This summer after the Flash Crash, his partner, Sal Arnuk, was asked to participate in an open meeting with the Securities Exchange Commission on market structure. They are some of the few electronic trading experts willing to talk about the practice because they guide clients around high-frequency trading instead of practice it themselves.

The firm’s renewed prediction today for another violent sell-off is based on a simple breakdown in the market basics of supply and demand.

“Prices set by the stock market are thought to be efficient and reflect an accurate measure of supply and demand,” wrote Saluzzi in the note. “But can we trust a market where most of the volume is concentrated in just a few stocks?”

On Thursday, General Motors [GM 34.26 0.07 (+0.2%) ], Citigroup [C 4.268 -0.032 (-0.74%) ] and Ford [F 16.28 0.16 (+0.99%) ] accounted for 15 percent of the shares traded, according to Themis. This kind of concentration does not occur in a market operating under the basic economic function of supply meeting demand, they argue. How could 15 percent of actual investors want to buy or sell these three stocks in a single day?

They also cite the volume in ETFs, baskets of whole stocks that can be bought and sold as easily as a single share. Trading in the SPDR S and P 500 [SPY 120.29 0.3325 (+0.28%) ], PowerShares QQQ Trust [QQQQ 52.47 0.04 (+0.08%) ] and iShares MSCI Emerging Markets [EEM 46.51 0.03 (+0.06%) ] are typically among the most actively traded vehicles on U.S. exchanges every day. Many individual investors have taken to these products in order to avoid single-company risk.

The regular long-term investor, who doesn’t buy or sell in milliseconds, is essentially gone from the market, Themis said. According to ICI data, there have been 28 consecutive weeks of domestic equity outflows since the May intraday crash where the Dow lost nearly 1,000 points in minutes. Turnover is now so great that the average holding period for stocks is just three months, according to Alan Newman’s Crosscurrents newsletter.

To be sure, stocks have recovered the losses from the May crash and then some, hitting a new high for the year just earlier this month. Some argue that the long-term investor is coming back soon and will add another leg to this bull market.

Maybe they decided to begin by buying GM, Ford and Citigroup yesterday.


  1. The common investor, mainly thru 401k's and mutual funds, are slowly bailing on equities. Only the Fed's POMO is keeping the markets up. But I wonder just how long the stock markets can last when the only thing propping it up is funny money ? Terrific article as usual.

  2. Our entire economy nor the equity market sit on solid footings. Government reports completely manipulated and seasonally adjusted, corporate America's financial reporting is a sham. As witnessed during the dot.com era, the market will eventually factor in fundamentals as the great paper chase sequel will end badly.