"Our Children and Grandchildren are not merely statistics towards which we can be indifferent" JFK

Saturday, July 24, 2010

Based on trading volumes the Bulls' parties offer tasteless hors d'oeuvres

The euphoric bull party of the U.S. equity party is poorly attended attended. The trend of high volume, well attended trading days during a declining market and poorly attended low volume days during the manipulated launch days continunes.

During the month of June, the Standard and Poor's 500 closed down 58.7 points on total monthly trading volume of 110.107 billion shares. 13 of the 22 June trading days were negative and generated 60% of the total trading volume during the month. The two largest down days occurred on June 4th (down 37.95) and June 29th (down 33.33). The average volume during these two largest down days was 6.159 billion shares. The two greatest up days occurred on June 10th (up 31.15) and June 2nd (up 27.67) on average volume of 5.086 billion shares.

The two largest down days generated 1.073 billion more guests per day than the two greatest up days. It appears the realistic and fundamentally focused bears truly know how to entertain. The "fundamentals don't matter", "I am entitled to a rally" and "CNBC affords me hope" bulls continue serving tasteless hors d'oeuvres.

For the week ending July 23rd, the Standard and Poor's 500 clocked in a net gain of 37.78 points with 33 of those points generated during the final 13 hours of trading. The market launched after Ben Bernanke's "unusually uncertain" phrase regarding his outlook on the U.S. economy. Month-to-date, the Standard and Poor's 500 index has launched 71.95 points during 16 trading days. The daily average trading volume month-to-date is 416 million shares less than June.

During the month of June, $8.076 billion was withdrawn from domestic equity funds (reporting period ending 6/2/10 through 6/30/10) or an average of $1.615 billion per reporting period.

The first two reporting periods in July note $7.272 billion has been withdrawn from domestic equity funds or an average of $3.636 billion per reporting period. Billions yanked from the U.S. equity market while the Standard and Poor's 500 Index romps 71.95 points.

Given the monster move in July, surely the bond market sold off causing interests rates to rise substantially...well not exactly...The 10 year treasury closed out the month of June at 2.95% and closed out July 23rd at 2.99%. The Standard and Poor's 500 launches 72 points (7%) in 16 trading days while the 10 year treasury moved a paultry 5 basis points (1%)!?

The 10 year treasury dropped 35 basis points (10.6%) during the month of June as the Standard and Poor's 500 index dropped 5.4% and a heavy trading volume month.

The market has clearly disconnected from any and all rational fundamentals while the bond market offers absolutely no endorsement of the bullish equity run. Time will tell who throws the ultimate party however during the interim, grandpa ordered tickets for the next bear bash!



A delicacy proudly served by the bulls....

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